Hello June!
May…what to say about May? Well, I did notice an uptick in listings. Our local stats in the area showed more listings and fewer sales showing a slight downturn in the market. Mind you that the stats are always a month behind so in actuality we may be doing ok, but for now, I have concerns. This is the market shift I have seen in the past. It’s hard for sellers to accept and challenging to get buyers prepped to make a move. Call it a stalemate. Regardless, systems are in place that I have faith in that will keep us from crashing like in the past. The current changes in the economy are having a negative impact on sellers that really need to sell and cannot wait. The buyer offers I received this month were all over the place. Some were close to list, while several were ridiculously below asking. It’s hard not to get offended when people take off 15% from the list price and think the seller should jump all over it. Rarely does that work, in fact I believe it actually hurts a buyers offer in the end. Sellers get offended and dig in their heels and the end result is that the deal falls apart of the seller gets more than if the buyer had just gone slightly below what the seller was hoping to get. For example, a house listed at 550K might have a bit of wiggle room like say 10K. A buyer offer a bid 15K below list makes the seller think and maybe be a little fearful to counter, while a buyer that offers 50K less might get push back at list or close and ultimately land at the 10K reduction they wanted. I have seen that play out way too many times. I work with buyers and sellers and know how they think. Offering way below list is not the best way to get a good deal. It’s a time waster. The only exception is when a home is way overpriced for the area and it won’t appraise, but still tread lightly. Insulting a seller is rarely a good way to start of a big transaction. I could
The bottom line is that it’s still a good time to buy and sell. If you're curious about the current market conditions or have any real estate questions, don't hesitate to reach out. I'm here to help you navigate this market and make the most of your real estate purchase or sale. 407-948-8295
More Homes for Sale Isn’t a Warning Sign – It's Your Buying Opportunity
Maybe you’ve heard the number of homes for sale has reached a recent high. And it might make you question if this is the start of another housing market crash.
But the reality is, the data proves that’s just not the case. In most areas, more inventory isn’t bad news. It’s actually a sign of the market returning to a more stable, healthy place.
What’s Going on With Inventory?
Based on the latest data from Realtor.com, inventory just hit its highest point since 2020, shown with the white line in the graph below.
But what you need to realize is, at the same time, inventory levels still haven’t returned to pre-pandemic norms (shown in gray):
That means there are more homes for sale now than there have been in quite some time.
And while it’s true inventory is up significantly compared to where it was over the last few years, the number of homes on the market is still well below typical levels. And that’s important context.
Why This Isn’t the Problem A Lot of People Think It Is
Some people hear inventory’s rising and immediately think about 2008. Because back then, inventory spiked just before the market crashed. But today’s situation is very different.
Here’s the key reason why. We don’t have a surplus of homes; we have a deficit to climb out of. What we’re dealing with is a long-term housing shortage – and it’s a big one.
The red bars in the graph below show all the years where housing starts (new builds) didn’t keep up with household formation, going all the way back to 2012. The deeper the bars in the graph, the more the housing deficit grew (see graph below):
And one of the reasons this housing shortage kept growing is because new home construction just didn’t keep up with the number of people who need to buy homes. In fact, the U.S. is actually short millions of homes at this point, and it will take years to overcome that gap. Realtor.com says:
“At a 2024 rate of construction relative to household formations and pent-up demand, it would take 7.5 years to close the housing gap.”
That means, in most areas, there isn’t a risk of having too many houses on the market right now. It’s quite the opposite – a vast majority of markets actually need more homes.
Which is why, even though inventory is rising, it’s not a problem on a national scale. It’s just helping to fill a gap that’s been growing for years.
Bottom Line
Don’t let the headlines scare you. Rising inventory isn’t a sign of a crash. It’s a step toward a more normal, stable housing market.
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